Will the Real Leader Please Stand Up

Libya literally has no organized authority at the moment. It has no parliament. Muammar al-Gaddafi is not and was not its president. It has no political parties. The strongest of its state ministries is oil.

First, let’s process this data. Imagine if it was like this in the United States (yes, it is a completely different culture and thus an impractical analogy, but humor me):

There would be no democrats or republicans--the elections (if any could be mustered), would be free-for-alls.

There would be no president or parliament, so elections would be pretty limited. I guess the board of education is important, but if there’s no president, who’s going to regulate it?

There would be no trade unions; good luck with labor laws.

There would be no nongovernmental agencies. And you thought your biggest worry was what group was left out/included too much in Obama’s healthcare bill.

No one would be allowed to speak against the country, or stand up for rights. There would be, for all intents and purposes, no leaders up to whom to look.

Personally, I would find that a little scary. Here’s what we’re looking at for leadership in Libya:

1. Moammar Khadafy (aka Muammar al-Gaddafi): Forty-two years ago, Gaddafi overthrew Libya’s monarchy. At first, the U.S. was okay with the coup, and with him, but he soon became highly anti-American and anti-British. He has a ton of money. He also has a ton of power; he was (in part) behind the 1988 Lockerbie bombing, when a plane bound for New York from London was bombed, killing passengers, crew, and people on the ground hit with the debris. Now he’s killing his own citizens.

Photo Courtesy of BlatantNews.com

Muammar al-Gaddafi, Libya's current leader

1. Mustafa Abdel-Jalil: He was the justice minister (note the irony of a justice minister under Gaddafi) up until last week. Now, he is forming a transitional government, based in the east (in Benghazi, the largest city in Libya and the site of many of the protests), made up of civilian and military figures. Libya’s ambassador to the U.S., Ali Aujali, supports him, though the U.S. State Department has yet to comment.

(I couldn’t find any pictures of him. Anywhere.)

1. Mohamed Shalgham: Serving as Libya’s ambassador to the UN, he initially supported Gaddafi as his friend. Now, he’s supporting UN sanctions against him.

By State Department photo by Michael Gross [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

Mohamed Shalgham, who is now denouncing Gadaffi

After numerous Google News searches, those were the sole leaders with whom I came up. There was the occasional online media whiz, but there wasn’t the presence of an established pool of politicians and leaders to fall back on; even Egypt, when people were fretting that it had little leadership, it had an army willing to step up, it had ElBaradei, it had the Muslim Brotherhood (say what you will about it). It had a basic system off of which to go.

The one thing that I, personally, think will hold the Libyans together is the fact that they are all, now, united against someone who is being accused of committing crimes against humanity. The U.N. is now on their side, and will boost them up. Unlike the early days, they have passed the threshold from dissident citizens to an oppressed, borderline massacred, population. It’s horrible, it’s unimaginable, but it will bond them together.

Still, I hope that they are not so psychologically downtrodden that no more leaders can emerge, because what will happen if Abdel-Jalil takes office? Eventually, someone needs to replace him, even if not for 10 years. Someone started these protests, so there are people in this country who can take initiative. Hopefully soon, they will gain the confidence to speak up and make their own voices heard.

The Butterfly Effect

“All things by immortal power

Near and far

Hiddenly

To each other linked are

That thou canst not stir a flower

Without troubling of a star.”

-Francis Thompson

I first read this poem when I was a lot younger, and I’ve always loved it. After reading Nick’s comment on my last post, and after talking with my mom about all the Middle Eastern countries rising up, it made me think of the poem again; namely, it made me think of the difference between the countries’ mutual influence versus their inherent differences.

Tunisia was the first country that rose up. It spread to Egypt. Now it’s spreading to Bahrain, Libya, Iran, Algeria, and Yemen. The one thing, however, I keep having to remind myself is that these are all separate countries. They may have similar problems--they all have poor economic situations, they all have a level corruption within the government, they are all balancing secularism with a predominantly Muslim population (which is often further divided between Sunnis and Shi’ites-- still, each and every country is not going to be Egypt 2.0. The area is not run by Hosni Mubarak clones. They each deserved to be dealt with individually, not as one, giant, problematic uprising.

In a horrifically brief synopsis:

The Bahrainis are purposefully trying to emulate Egypt through their use of Pearl Square. Also similar to Egypt, the government launched violent attacks against the peaceful protestors; unlike Egypt, however, these attacks were launched by the military, whereas in Egypt, the military even joined the protestors. Still, the government is waffling between allowing protestors in the square and forcing them to leave; most recently, on Feb. 19, Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa forced the troops to leave. Though the population is modeling its protests and its “Day of Rage” on Feb. 14 after Egypt, it is calling for a constitutional monarchy, an elected cabinet, and a constitution written by the population. One of the key problems facing the country is the division between the Sunni ruling family and the Shi’ite majority.

Photo Courtesy of Fractal 00

The Pearl Monument in Pearl Square, Manama, Bahrain

Libya has a horribly high death rate, at 200 when I last checked, and, like Egypt, Internet is being shut down, and the Al Jazeera’s signal is blocked. The military is joining the protestors, who are fighting against the 42-year rule of Muammar Gaddafi. Protestors are burning buildings, security forces opened fire on a funeral, and demonstrators captured and arrested six alleged mercenaries. This one seems to be the most violent protests in the area.

Photo Courtesy of NH53

Benghazi, Libya

Algerian police are preventing the protestors from marching through the capital, and President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s government has banned the protests, which are asking for improved living conditions and an increase in freedoms. Currently, the rallies are being limited to only Saturdays and, contrary to Egypt’s stance, Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia promises to lift the state of emergency (which has been in effect for 19 years) by March.

Photo Courtesy of Damouns

Algiers, Algeria

In Yemen, students are heading many of the protests, though members of  the parliamentary opposition against President Ali Abdullah Saleh have joined, and have urged others to join the student protests. The death toll is currently at 11 and, though police originally remained uninvolved, they shot a protester on Sunday. Interestingly (and amazingly), Saleh has promoted journalistic freedom throughout, so that the news can continue getting out; still, journalists have been targeted and beaten. Also unlike many of the other protests, there is a Southern Movement caught up in the turmoil that wants the formerly independent region to separate once more (the country was united in 1990, and briefly broke apart in 1994).

Photo Courtesy of Ai@ce

Sana'a, Yemen

Iranians gathered in Tehran to protest two demonstrators being shot on Feb. 14. The government did their best to squelch the protests, including using tear gas, and drastically slowed the internet while also shutting down cell phone service in areas where protestors were active and by blocking satellite television. The police seemed to be trying to recruit teenagers to join anti-demonstration forces (reminiscent of the Egyptian police’s practices), and there were reports of the use of live ammunition. Kurds (a group of native people in the Middle East), called for a general strike, also to commemorate the two deceased men, while the Iranian state television network is only admitting to there being a traffic jam.

Photo Courtesy of  Sam Anvari 

Tehran, Iran

So what? It’s hard to compare it to any previous phenomenon. When the Soviet Union broke apart, it was against virtually one ruler, even though it split into several countries. Even in instances were it seems that leaders could have been influenced, rarely is it several completely independent nations, bordering each other, at the same time. The closest idea I can come up with is the division of Africa in the postcolonial era. In both cases, an entire section of the globe underwent/is undergoing a similar, history-altering experience; however, rising against colonial leaders is a far cry from rising against local leaders with the same background as the constituents. 

The main similarity to Africa, however, is the fact that these countries cannot, ultimately, be grouped together. Luckily, the world does not have the same problem it did in Africa in trying to divide up the countries’ boundaries; those are mostly already established and, in the cases were there is contention, it is irrelevant to the current problem. Still, as the U.N. navigates this (good luck with the diplomacy, guys), and as the world renders its latest judgement on these nations, we all need to remember that they are not all one and the same. It is an argument that Arabs have made agains Americans since 9/11: We all think they are terrorists.

Let’s prove them wrong. Yes, they are linked. No matter what they do, it will affect their neighbors and the world, but not because they are fighting the same battle; it affects the world because everything we do affects our neighbors.

Support Bahrain. Support Libya. Support Algeria. Support Yemen. Support Iran. Separately.

Where in the World is Hosni Mubarak? And Where Do We Go from Here?

That’s right, Mubarak stepped down! Egypt is free, history is made.

If only it were that easy. Don’t get me wrong, I’m incredibly proud of and overjoyed for the Egyptian people. Not to be overly sentimental or anything, but the newspaper reports of the elation brought tears to my eyes. This is a country where, when I once asked a student whether he would celebrate Egypt’s Independence Day (July 23, in remembrance of the 1952 revolution), he asked why he should bother--after all, it was almost 60 years ago. The Egyptians are showing pride again, and it’s a beautiful thing.

It’s not as beautiful when you look both behind the scenes and at the bigger picture.

 Photo Courtesy of Muhammad غفّاري /Creative Commons

Barack Obama and Hosni Mubarak

There are now reports that Mubarak is in a coma. The Egyptian newspaper Al-Masry Al-Youm reported that the former president fainted twice during his refusal-to-quit speech, while the U.S. administration is saying that he is in Sharm el-Sheikh, a resort town by the Red Sea (of course, Al-Masry Al-Youm is saying he is there, as well). Others are saying he is in Germany.

Photo Courtesy of Celeste Small

Sharm el-Sheikh

What’s it all mean? Well, if he passes away, it puts the Egyptians in a rather awkward position and may wield some surprising attitudes. Granted that this is purely anecdotal evidence, I have seen several Facebook statuses of Egyptians who are in Egypt expressing regrets that he is dying; turns out, maybe they do not hate the man as much as the regime. 

Furthermore, it makes the end of his reign extremely permanent; forget about going back to ask advice, forget about foreign powers (such as Israel) discussing developments with him or asking him for backup over previous treaties. It is officially over.

Will it also taint the Egyptians victory? They won, but how much of it was his realizing his failing health prevented him from staying in office? Perhaps it was a last gift to his nation; he let them win. Again, pure speculation--but interesting nonetheless.

If he is in Sharm el-Sheikh, in good health, will he stay there? Especially since it is a very Europeanized town, will he be welcome there? Haiti is currently dealing with the citizenship of its deposed leaders; will Mubarak be next?

If he is in Germany, and Germany is denying that he is there, either it is an extremely random rumor and he will next show up at a nightclub in Milan with Paris Hilton, or he is receiving refuge. Whatever the case, it will be interesting to see where the countries fall: will he be shunned? offered exile? ignored? This is true, too, if he dies: who will go to his funeral? What is in good taste? Where will he be buried?

Currently, the military has assumed control, dissolving the parliament. Still, it seems to be responding to citizens’ demands: even legislation will go through referendum. Blogs such as the The Arabist have noted that the military seems sincere; still, the author questioned when a real democracy will come. Obama is certainly trying to reach out to the army, but, then again, the U.S. tried to help Iraq after Hussein fell from power, and no one (at least, no one I know), can say that everything is perfectly fixed there. I’m not saying that it’s going to be another situation just like that; the U.S. was not instrumental in ousting Mubarak. Still, Obama needs to be careful going forward, as Egypt feels its way around and looks for a new institution, that he does not guide the hand to suit only his interests. Already, U.S. politicians are criticizing his handling of the situation.

Of course, there is the ever-present issue of Israel: what will happen to the peace treaty? Apparently, the Israelis are calming down and becoming less worried. Thankfully--nerves seem to have a tendency to leading to violence. Still, can you blame the Israelis? I could spend about 20 blog posts on this issue alone, but I do want to bring it up quickly. The Israelis relied on their pact with Egypt to keep a precarious peace. What now? They’re worried about Islamic extremists taking over, which is subsequently delaying peace talks with Palestine. Can we blame them from being anxious? I don’t even have enough information to speculate; I’m fairly certain no one in the world does. The Egyptian military has promised to honor the treaty, but in these uncertain circumstances, it is difficult to believe that this promise will unilaterally hold forevermore. Still, The Boston Globe reported that Bostonians are optimistic that relations will remain peaceful. Is it too soon to hope for a stabilized Middle East? 

Photo Courtesy of Sachitha Obeysekara

The Wailing Wall in Jerusalem.

And so the world, once more, waits with bated breath. 

Journalists Targeted in Egypt

As a journalism major, I’d like to talk/rant a little bit about their situation in Egypt. Really, it is frightening. Mubarak got a few people on his side (they were reportedly offered 50 Egyptian pounds (LE), which is less than $10), to protest on his behalf. 

Photo Courtesy of RamyRaoof

Unfortunately, much of that violence was directed at journalists, and especially foreign journalists. Broadcaster Anderson Cooper was attacked, anyone with a camera was targeted, and Al-Jazeera was forced to shut down its offices. Sixty-five journalists have been attacked or arrested.

The government also took over the news report, with reports that glorify how much Mubarak’s camp is loved and supported. One well-known broadcaster even quit due to feeling uncomfortable with the direction the government-run station was going.

What most disturbs me is that all of this is on top of the Internet shutdown, the Twitter shutdown, the Facebook shutdown. Yes, they were all restored, but does not stop the fact that the Egyptians are being fed false information without being able to fix it or even to hear true reports, including news from the numerous international agencies that are condemning the acts.

I am especially concerned as the protests have become violent. One report put the death rate during the protests at 300, and the injury rate at 5,000. What are the Egyptians in the countryside thinking? Do they know anything? How scary must that be, to know a borderline revolution is happening, but have absolutely no way of knowing the truth?

Photo Courtesy of Poster Boy NYC

Personally, I see this as the nail in Mubarak’s coffin. Sure, he’s holding on good and tenaciously, but no longer can the world deny that he is acting despotically. Before, he was the United States’ sweetie from the Camp David Accords; now, if the United States continues to support his regime following any conclusive proof that the he hired thugs to attack protesters (and this proof looks forthcoming: people on his side began fighting at exactly the same time, armed exactly the same way, chanting exactly the same thing...), then the United States is supporting suppressed speech, oppressing people, and a regime that instigates violence (the anti-Mubarak protesters were peaceful).

Suppressing speech also works against him because, realistically, he cannot keep the information from getting out. This is not 1775, and he can’t just detain a nouveau-Paul Revere. Egyptians used other methods to go through foreign countries to access free (meaning, uncensored) Internet, and hackers worked to take down government Web sites, while others resorted to faxes to communicate. Once the world gets word that he is behaving this way, his last, straggling supporters will fall. Already, people are joining the cause and launching virtual protests on Facebook, while agencies such as the Committee to Protect Journalists are speaking against him.

Yes, leaders can be tenacious. Ivory Coast’s Lauren Gbagbo is an example of one ruler who simply will not let go. He really is that petulant child that will go dead-weight rather than get on the bus. Mubarak is making concessions, but he is also that petulant child’s older brother. He still won’t take the bus, but he’s lying and saying he’s sick, then beating up his friends who tell the truth while making ridiculous promises that he will eventually get on the bus and that he’ll study really hard in the meantime. I expect the silent treatment will come next. 

Once more, I support the Egyptians. I support my friends there, and I wish them both safety and success. I wish for their country to be the prosperous Nile kingdom of yore, once again. I wish them peace and justice. Numerous journalists have echoed this call, and the belief that journalists should not live in fear. 

Photo Courtesy of RamyRaoof

More than anything, I wish the Egyptians the ability to run, carefree, through the streets, shouting whatever they want, without worrying about an emergency law that could detain them and a “president” that will hire thugs to take them out. You are all in my thoughts and in my heart.