That’s right, Mubarak stepped down! Egypt is free, history is made.
If only it were that easy. Don’t get me wrong, I’m incredibly proud of and overjoyed for the Egyptian people. Not to be overly sentimental or anything, but the newspaper reports of the elation brought tears to my eyes. This is a country where, when I once asked a student whether he would celebrate Egypt’s Independence Day (July 23, in remembrance of the 1952 revolution), he asked why he should bother--after all, it was almost 60 years ago. The Egyptians are showing pride again, and it’s a beautiful thing.
It’s not as beautiful when you look both behind the scenes and at the bigger picture.
Photo Courtesy of Muhammad غفّاري /Creative Commons
Barack Obama and Hosni Mubarak
There are now reports that Mubarak is in a coma. The Egyptian newspaper Al-Masry Al-Youm reported that the former president fainted twice during his refusal-to-quit speech, while the U.S. administration is saying that he is in Sharm el-Sheikh, a resort town by the Red Sea (of course, Al-Masry Al-Youm is saying he is there, as well). Others are saying he is in Germany.
Photo Courtesy of Celeste Small
Sharm el-Sheikh
What’s it all mean? Well, if he passes away, it puts the Egyptians in a rather awkward position and may wield some surprising attitudes. Granted that this is purely anecdotal evidence, I have seen several Facebook statuses of Egyptians who are in Egypt expressing regrets that he is dying; turns out, maybe they do not hate the man as much as the regime.
Furthermore, it makes the end of his reign extremely permanent; forget about going back to ask advice, forget about foreign powers (such as Israel) discussing developments with him or asking him for backup over previous treaties. It is officially over.
Will it also taint the Egyptians victory? They won, but how much of it was his realizing his failing health prevented him from staying in office? Perhaps it was a last gift to his nation; he let them win. Again, pure speculation--but interesting nonetheless.
If he is in Sharm el-Sheikh, in good health, will he stay there? Especially since it is a very Europeanized town, will he be welcome there? Haiti is currently dealing with the citizenship of its deposed leaders; will Mubarak be next?
If he is in Germany, and Germany is denying that he is there, either it is an extremely random rumor and he will next show up at a nightclub in Milan with Paris Hilton, or he is receiving refuge. Whatever the case, it will be interesting to see where the countries fall: will he be shunned? offered exile? ignored? This is true, too, if he dies: who will go to his funeral? What is in good taste? Where will he be buried?
Currently, the military has assumed control, dissolving the parliament. Still, it seems to be responding to citizens’ demands: even legislation will go through referendum. Blogs such as the The Arabist have noted that the military seems sincere; still, the author questioned when a real democracy will come. Obama is certainly trying to reach out to the army, but, then again, the U.S. tried to help Iraq after Hussein fell from power, and no one (at least, no one I know), can say that everything is perfectly fixed there. I’m not saying that it’s going to be another situation just like that; the U.S. was not instrumental in ousting Mubarak. Still, Obama needs to be careful going forward, as Egypt feels its way around and looks for a new institution, that he does not guide the hand to suit only his interests. Already, U.S. politicians are criticizing his handling of the situation.
Of course, there is the ever-present issue of Israel: what will happen to the peace treaty? Apparently, the Israelis are calming down and becoming less worried. Thankfully--nerves seem to have a tendency to leading to violence. Still, can you blame the Israelis? I could spend about 20 blog posts on this issue alone, but I do want to bring it up quickly. The Israelis relied on their pact with Egypt to keep a precarious peace. What now? They’re worried about Islamic extremists taking over, which is subsequently delaying peace talks with Palestine. Can we blame them from being anxious? I don’t even have enough information to speculate; I’m fairly certain no one in the world does. The Egyptian military has promised to honor the treaty, but in these uncertain circumstances, it is difficult to believe that this promise will unilaterally hold forevermore. Still, The Boston Globe reported that Bostonians are optimistic that relations will remain peaceful. Is it too soon to hope for a stabilized Middle East?
Photo Courtesy of Sachitha Obeysekara
The Wailing Wall in Jerusalem.
And so the world, once more, waits with bated breath.
What do you think the next domino regimes to fall will be, if any? Looks like the totalitarian powers that be in Bahrain and Iran are doing everything they can to make sure they follow the China model of Tiananmen Square rather than the Egyptian model of Tahrir Square.
ReplyDeleteIran is odd because the government initially supported the Egyptian protests as being anti-US and reminiscent of the Ayatollah Khomenei's takeover. I honestly can't tell if the government is delusional or engaging in propaganda, but I'm guessing it's all in the spin. They may be oppressive, but they're not dumb.
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting that you're comparing it to Tiananmen Square--I'm hoping that it does not come to that, and I think the fact that so many countries are rising up together in such close proximity may prevent that. Egypt's success may, hopefully, deter leaders from displaying such bloody and absolute violence. Tear gas is horrible, but it's not plowing down protesters.
Libya, Bahrain, Iran, and Yemen are all launching significant revolts. The governments of all are reacting badly (journalists have been targeted again, tear gas, all sorts of things). I'm hoping that citizens can hold on, just as they did in Egypt, but I honestly don't want to make a prediction yet because it is so early. That being said, I'm most worried about Iran. After so many years of so much open turmoil, and with it such a world power, it's government seems to be a lot harder to crack.
Still, I think that even psychologically, Egypt's success will help give hope.