Shock and Awe: The World Reacts to Libya

I think we can all say that Libya’s situation is horrendous. I think we can all say that Gaddafi is behaving absolutely savagely. I think we can all say that, given the chance, we would want to save the Libyan civilians.

So why isn’t the U.S., with the U.N. and maybe Angelina Jolie in tow, reenacting Iraq and taking down the despised ruler? 

Because of reality.

It’s become a rather sticky subject around the world. Nearly all vocal leaders are vehemently against his actions; however, even within that vague generalization, there is no black and white.  After all, there is the stray leader supporting Gaddafi and then backing away, but still remaining friends with him over in Venezuela.

Photo Courtesy of United States Federal Government

Venezuelan leader Hugo Chávez 

Narrowing the focus, what’s going on becomes even more problematic. Within Congress, John Kerry and John McCain, among others, are leaning towards an air strike, while other’s, including President Obama and Hillary Clinton are shying away from the idea, saying it is closer to an attack on the nation; the reluctance comes despite a promise from the U.S. administration promising that “all options are on the table,” according to The Los Angeles Times. Of course, the administration has admitted that it would consider if the U.N. Security Council gave a resolution of support for the members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to impose such a zone; Russia and China (permanent members of the Security Council), as well as Turkey ( a member of NATO), vocally oppose a zone, however. 

Furthermore, while Kerry wants to develop an aid package for the countries in the area who have recently overthrown their rulers, he is being met with some opposition. There is one definite, however: The United States has plans to ferry people out of the country, sending planes to bring Egyptians back to their homeland. 

Looking abroad, it’s not much better. The United Nations, along with the U.S., leveled sanctions that froze Gaddafi’s assets in the involved countries. Now, however, Italy’s freaking out about its economy; it receives billions of dollars from Libyan contracts, and billions of dollars from investments (it relies heavily on Libya for oil and natural gas) and, as the U.S. and the E.U. freeze the assets, those funds will be gone. Furthermore, the International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor is going to investigate Khadafy, along with sons and senior aides, for crimes against humanity.

Photo Courtesy of User Hanhil from the Nederlandstalige Wikipedia

The International Criminal Court building in The Hague, The Netherlands

Will these work? Unfortunately, no one can know what the best course of action is. It’s the one giant problem with history: no matter what happens, no one can know for certain what would have happened if the U.S. hadn’t overthrown Saddam Hussein, if the U.S. hadn’t joined the Allies, if the U.S. hadn’t revolted against Britain; no one will ever know what the best answer would have been in this situation, either.

Right now, it’s all just speculation. If the U.S. gets involved, it might support the theories that the West backed the protesters from the beginning. If the U.S. doesn’t get involved, it might become a genocide (if it isn’t considered one already--that’s another unknown: the death count. According to Voice of America, The International Federation of Human Rights is currently estimating 3,000 to 6,000 deaths, a rather significant range). 

Photo Courtesy of gwydionwilliams

News coverage of the Libyan conflict

If the U.S. does get involved, we could save a lot of civilians and guide them to form a perfectly working government, or we could increase Gaddafi’s ire and cause a larger scale war and kill the chances of a quickly won peace. If the U.S. doesn’t become involved, the Libyans could rise up and defeat Gaddafi and create a government on their own with legitimacy based on the people, or Gaddafi could overcome the people and years of oppression will follow, or there could simply be a stalemate for years to come.

What doesn’t help is that, within the country, the information being circulated to each other and to the outside world is utterly and completely garbled. Sure, agencies are trying to get approximate counts on death, injuries, defected soldiers, protesters, pro-Gaddafi forces, what have you. Every time a number comes out, however, another follows that completely contradicts it. 

I don’t envy policymakers right now; this is a very, very, unbelievably difficult situation. Of course, the devil’s advocate in me wants to ask why this became more of a crisis more quickly than did, say Sudan, but I won’t go there right now.

All I can really say at this point is that, primarily, there is a whole lot of dumb luck involved. Obama and his peers may as well be at a gambling table; this is all a game of risk, and I hope, for the sake of the world at large (because, truly, there are many more people than just the Libyan citizens at stake now), that they pick the right card, choose the right door, etc.

Best of luck, Obama. I suppose the only consolation that I can offer is that, at the very least, you have a lot of other leaders who are just as panicked. Better you all than me.