That sounds good at first: Everyone will have stopped fighting and there will be a peace, albeit a shaky one, but does that mean that the entire mission was a failure? If Gaddafi stays in power, even in only some parts of the country or even if his powers are notably checked, was the money spent and manpower wasted worth it?
After one of the top aide’s in Libya, the now-former Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa, defected and fled to London, leaders are pumping him for information regarding past crimes and the current situation; according to Koussa, the chances of forces loyal to Gaddafi giving up are slim to none, even as more defectors are following in his footsteps (Damien McElroy at The Telegraph compiled a pretty comprehensive list of these defectors here).
Photo Courtesy of Πρωθυπουργός της Ελλάδας
Defected Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa (right)
British officials disclosed that recent intelligence points to new avenues of fighting into which pro-government forces are looking, possibly breathing new life into attacks that have not yet died in the first place. Furthermore, analysts agree that Gaddafi is not about to relinquish power, no matter what other members of the government are doing, and he most certainly is not about to leave Tripoli, where he is surrounded by his loyal forces.
Like the rest of the entire situation, there are countless possibilities. To name a few, Libya could remain divided with Gaddafi simply “contained” within the country; military personnel could take out Gaddafi and work out a deal with the opposition; those loyal to Gaddafi could all defect and make separate deals with the opposition; everyone could work everything out and create a perfect democratic society.
Even if the forces eventually defect to the point that there is no one left, analysts are admitting that things do not look good for the opposition, who have little organization or means of conveying important information. The opposition itself further seems to admit that it cannot win militarily, as a spokesman agreed to a ceasefire on the condition that Gaddafi remove his troops from the cities and allow for free speech. A government spokesman scoffed at the offer.
This is a disappointing update; everyone wants to see the evil dictator taken down and the underdog win (who doesn’t love an underdog story?). Unfortunately, as so often happens with politics, this was not an easy situation and, unfortunately, the gambles did not entirely pay off.
Personally, I do not think that this was a wasted effort: Who knows how much United Nations intervention sped the rate of the defections, or how many lives were potentially saved by the airstrikes? Furthermore, simply by flexing out muscles and showing that we are watching, maybe, just maybe, Gaddafi is a little more scared and, maybe, he will clean up his act a bit.
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